According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. But it is concerning. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. google_color_url = "426C95"; Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. Surface Water Elevation (feet) Lake Powell End of Month Elevations1 . Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. 04:18 . Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. %%EOF In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. Lake Powell, Printable Version 15 Day Weather Forecast google_color_text = "000000"; The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. Gas Prices on Lake If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. . Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). monthly forecasts become more accurate. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. google_ad_height = 600; The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation..
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